Carpenter’s seminar Imagination for Transformation provided another outlook on the future environmental problems of the world. There was the address that what we are seeing now has not occurred before. The human population is growing faster than we can provide resources for ourselves. And while our use of environmental services are increasing, the conditions of the environment we are using are deteriorating. But if these rates of deterioration and natural disasters can no longer be predicted, how do we prevent a catastrophe. I believe this is where the role of imagination comes into play. We cannot blindly propose a solution without some knowledge of the situation. Thus we can create models of what we’ve already seen and attempt to apply them to the future. Based on our current knowledge we make educated guesses based on what will happen in the future, and whether these future visions pose a problem or not. It is however, difficult to foretell future events with a large degree of uncertainty. It may then be necessary to stretch our minds eye and envision several possibilities, not just one.
One of the messages that struck me in Carpenter’s lecture was that our goal was not necessarily to stop these possible disasters from occurring but from increasing the resilience of our environment to these disasters. This is relevant because you might consider that we don’t have the power to stop all the disasters that might plague the earth. We might not be able to prevent a fleet of meteors from entering our atmosphere, but perhaps we can find ways to decrease the damage these meteors may cause. A more relevant example is that we cannot stop the effects of climate change because they are already occurring, but we can reduce the impacts of climate change by controlling our emissions now.
I would suggest it is more important to reduce damages done than to prevent events from occurring on earth. An event may have negative consequences at the beginning but turn out to have subsequent positive consequences. Forest fires can be a damaging force, but they can also change the environment for new beings to grow and survive. Who knows if there may be any benefits to climate change.
Carpenter also attempts to stress that positive change is not as hard as it looks. Using the example of population, he showed that a difference of one child per woman can create a huge difference in population demographics. Thus the “Imagination for Transformation” seminar wasn’t your usual doom and gloom “the world’s careening off a cliff and we have to change our ways now so its not a complete disaster”. With a positive outlook, people will be more likely to seek change then giving into despair.
Finally the proposition is given for three tools that could assist us in the future. These are education, innovation and imagination. We would need to educate our children, who carry on a large legacy, especially with the trend of fewer children to inherit the world. As mentioned previously, with education we may be able to estimate the events of the future. Education itself is the greatest tool we have to our survival. With regard to innovation we have the opportunity to change our environment and build it right the second time. We can come up with technology that reduces our footprint on this earth. Innovation would tie in with education. By learning from our mistakes we can create a better future. Finally concerning imagination, we can assess the possible scenarios, foresee a positive future and take heed of the warnings that we are faced with along the way. In this way we can talk about what we should do without the panic of a need to act immediately.