Computers, Society, and Nature

Human-induced climate change has caused so much damage that the Earth is past the point of no return. So says, James Lovelock, creator of the Gaia theory, in his new book Revenge of Gaia.

According to the book, not only is global warming increasing but effects like melting polar ice are working in a positive feedback loop. The impacts will only accelerate and will create world-wide havoc much sooner than expected. This warning is not new. The rapidity with which it’s happening, is. And Lovelock warns that the change is irreversible so countries need to prepare for the worst.

Over the coming decades soaring temperatures will mean agriculture may become unviable over huge areas of the world where people are already poor and hungry; water supplies for millions or even billions may fail. Rising sea levels will destroy substantial coastal areas in low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, at the very moment when their populations are mushrooming. Numberless environmental refugees will overwhelm the capacity of any agency, or indeed any country, to cope, while modern urban infrastructure will face devastation from powerful extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Katrina which hit New Orleans last summer.

The prognosis is as depressing as can be imagined: the destruction of civilization. What will be left is “a broken rabble led by brutal warlords.”

His advice? Stockpile food in a narrow Arctic belt that will be habitable for the few remaining humans. Compile a text for the survivors, written “on durable paper with long-lasting print”, containing all necessary scientific knowledge so that humanity can rebound as quickly as possible. I’m sure Lovelock got this idea from the science fiction novel, Lucifer’s Hammer by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. Even though the book speculated about an Earth after a comet strike, it’s still a valid idea for a world destroyed by a rise of 8 degrees celsius. (And ironic since Niven doesn’t believe the climate change is human-induced.)

This is considered so important that, in addition to Lovelock’s piece, Britain’s Independent newspaper has devoted two articles to it, here and here.

It will be interested to see how climate change scientists react to this book publicly. I’m guessing that they’ll tone down Lovelock’s assertions. I don’t know whether the majority of scientists believe in Lovelock’s prognosis but feel it won’t play well in the press or believe that climate change ultimately can be halted. The public? It’s like a novelization of The Day After Tomorrow so I can’t foresee any major reaction. The paradox is, as much as a film such as this distorts the science of climate change for dramatic effect, it captures the magnitude of Lovelock’s predictions.

Activists from numerous organizations played hockey today in front of the Palais de Congres. To illustrate the plight of global warming, the hockey rink was slush instead of ice. Good thing it wasn’t too cold today–the activists were playing in bare feet.

Once again, the demonstration attracted the news media and not the attendees. Did it reach the TV audience? Even though hockey is Canadians’ national past-time, I’m not convinced this make climate change more pressing of an issue. On TV it looked kind of silly but that’s what happens when you rely on the media to transmit a message the way you want it conveyed.

There is little apparent NGO protest within the UNFCCC/COP. After all, NGOs are significant players in the negotiations (either directly because they are part of a country’s delegation or indirectly because they are attempting to influence a country’s delegation). There is a bit, however. This morning I saw a sign from Environment Jeunnesse, saying “The Children of the World Say: YES to Marrakech” (the sign asked delegates to support the Marrakech accords created at COP 7). And later that day, WWF staged a little inside theatre: a guy dressed in a polar bear outfit wandered around a small set kitted out in the trappings of a tropical island (very nice backdrop, BTW). The polar bear kept looking for an iceberg, finally fell to ground, and ‘died’.

The attendees of the conference just walked by these demonstrations. Of course, these may not have been for the attendees at all but for the media. And the media was attracted to these demonstrations like flies on…flypaper. Which leads me to wonder: can the press be so easily played? (Yes, that’s why NGOs do this.) Does the press assumes that this is the sum total of what’s going on at this conference? (No, but it’s easy and it makes for ‘good’ TV.) It’s also part of the mnemonics of the press: “Climate change conference? Protest. Flash. Police presence. Flash. Serious people talking. Flash. Some kind of chart or map. Flash. Politician. Okay, got it.” Kind of difficult to insert some nuance into this.

From a former CS&N blogger, Jennifer.

On Thursday, November 24th 109 youth from 26 countries met in Montreal at Environment Canada’s Biosphere to address the challenge of climate change. We spent four days in discussions and debates around the subject of climate change, and it wasn’t just for fun! As a result of these discussions and debates we produced an international youth declaration, entitled Our Climate, Our Challenge, Our Future: International Youth Declaration, Montreal 2005, that our delegation will present at the high level segments of this UN conference and distribute to all conference delegates and negotiators.

The delcaration has been released to press around the world and circulated on various listserves. Our goal is to distribute our declaratin as widely as possible – to young and old, near and far alike. I invite you to read the pdf file with an open mind and join in our optimism. After reading the declaration yourself, if you can take a moment, please circulate it within your networks.

Here’s their blog.

No, this isn’t about the Beatles. At the COP I wanted to introduce myself to the RINGOs–research and independent non-governmental organizations. Without knowing a lot about the UNFCCC process, there doesn’t seem to be a significant role for climate change scientists or research institutes if they are not already attached to country delegations or inter-governmental organizations. Only recently has the UNFCCC begun to differentiate among the non delegate observers (the ‘yellow’ badges). So RINGOs are now part of 5 categories of NGOS–environmental organizations (eNGOs), business associations (BINGOs), indigenous peoples organizations (IPOs) and local government and municipal authorities (LGMA).

RINGOs seem to be composed largely of foundations, such as the Pew Center, think tanks like the International Institute for Sustainable Development (which I always thought of as a Canadian institution because it was started here and a huge percentage of its funding comes from Canada even though it now has offices in NY and Geneva), and a couple of universities, like Imperial College. I’m interested in RINGOs because it seems to be a good association for McGill’s School of Environment to be involved in.

Didn’t get much information about them because I got waylaid by the tree puppets people (who must be connected to the RINGOs in some way). I’ll blog more about them after their Wednesday meeting.

A serious instance of physical activism (as opposed to cyberactivism) at the COP:

Towering Tree Ambassadors Call for Anti-Deforestation Measures To Be Added to Climate Change Convention

Washington DC, USA – November 29, 2005 – Trees will arise at the Palais des congrès de Montréal in Canada from 1pm to 2pm, to draw attention to continuing extreme levels of tropical deforestation worldwide. The large tree puppets – some as high as 4 meters – will call attention to the lack of resources in the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) & and the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) to halt tropical deforestation. Tropical deforestation is the leading cause of species extinctions worldwide and emits 20% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. Sadly, even though tropical deforestation is a proximate cause of biodiversity loss and global warming, neither UN treaty has made progress in halting the 25 million acres of tropical forest destruction each year.

The trees will gather in front of the UN meetings and negotiators will be encouraged to come and “listen to the trees”. Then, several large puppets representing the UN Treaties will come out from the UN talks and fail to notice that a large Axe-Machine is cutting all the trees. The trees will then call on diplomats to pass a vote in favor of more help for the world’s diminishing rainforests. Several high-level delegates, including the Honorable Robert Aisi, Papua New Guinea’s ambassador to the UN and lead negotiator to the FCCC, will address the press at a press conference marking the end of the parade at 2pm. Other speakers include Beatrice Ahimbisibwe, Ugandan schoolteacher and international carbon consultant; John O. Niles, project manager for the Climate, Community & Biodiversity Alliance; and Ole Patenya Yusuf, Masai and community organizer.

The Tree Pageant will be filmed, and a satellite-uplink will be immediately available to the 1,000 reporters covering the CBD and FCCC talks at: www.cjpictures.com. The pageant will be held from 1pm to 2pm at the corner on St Antoine St, between St Urbain and Rue de Bleury. In addition, several large tree puppets will be on display at the Palais des congrès on November 28th and the morning of November 29th.

While the trees make their statement outside, inside the UN negotiations a coalition of ten countries will be making the same argument, albeit diplomatically. The Coalition of Rainforest Nations (comprising: Papua New Guinea, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, and Bolivia) has submitted agenda item #6 of the 11th Conference of the Parties to the FCCC. This agenda item requests that FCCC negotiators redouble their efforts to find solutions to tropical deforestation. Specifically, it calls for the FCCC to consider how financial incentives generated by the treaty could be used to help conserve tropical forests.

Twenty-five million acres of rainforests are destroyed each year. In addition to the environmental harm of species extinctions and greenhouse gas pollution, this destruction wreaks havoc on the lives of rural poor throughout the world. It causes air and water pollution, soil erosion and the loss of critical ecosystem services that local people have relied on for generations.

Having never been to one, I didn’t know what to expect. Instead of taking the Metro, I decided to walk to the Palais de Congres to see if there was any outdoor activity. Minimal police and army presence, although they might be well-hidden. I expect that this is a more low-key event than it would be if it was sited in the US or if it was something like a World Bank or IMF-related event. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are huge players at the UNFCCC/COP so it’s not like they were relegated to the cold drizzly weather outside. Indeed, there were no protests of any kind outside. Just a couple of cold LaRouchians at a small table (yes, followers of Lyndon LaRouche).

Went to a plenary session. The plenary was booooring but I was prepared for this. My colleague in the Faculty of Law, who actually studies international agreements, said that she would have to study the protocol and other agenda items to even begin to understand what was going on in a plenary. For me, these giant meetings were unintelligible.

Of course, I’m interested in what the environmental NGOs are doing and they are all over the place. Equiterre, a local NGO, is organizing the local activities of the eNGOs. The Climate Action Network (CAN) is the big international player–they have a meeting every day to strategize the actions of the relatively large number of old hand NGOs, organizations that have been to many COPs. CAN will be publishing the official newsletter of the conference here but it’s most important manifestation is the paper version.

A group of students and I will be attending COP-11 this week and will be blogging from it. We’re focussing on the use of cyber activism in and around the site during the 12 days of the meeting.

For an example of conference blogging, see It’s getting hot in here, started by a graduate of McGill’s School of Environment.